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Abstract

We evaluate the statistical relationship between ENSO state and global seasonal temperature and precipitation, creating and analyzing maps of the linear correlation between seasonal temperature and ENSO state, and seasonal precipitation and ENSO state. I use the Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (Ensemble ONI), which extends back to 1850 and is calculated using an ensemble of 32 SST datasets, compared to the NOAA ONI that extends to 1949 and uses only one dataset. I compare correlation results from the Ensemble ONI to those using NOAA ONI for 1949-2024 to assess differences between my results and those by the NOAA CPC, noting that I use different temperature and precipitation datasets. We find that the temperature and precipitation datasets we chose are likely driving most of the findings from the Ensemble ONI and NOAA ONI correlation comparisons, since the differences between the Ensemble ONI and NOAA ONI are small. Finally, I quantify the change in correlation between the present (1949-2024) and past (1850-1948), creating maps of the coefficient of determination (R^2 value that is equal to the square of the Pearson correlation coefficient, r) and subtract the coefficient of determination maps of 1850-1948 from the coefficient of determination maps of 1949-2024 to show how and where the overall R^2 values between ENSO state and global temperature and global precipitation has increased and decreased between the two timeframes. We also focus on four known ENSO teleconnection hotspots in our R^2 difference analyses: North America, South America, southern Africa, and the Maritime continent. In general, we find that there is an increase in the strength of temperature teleconnections from the past to the present in South America, southern Africa, and the Maritime continent. We also find a general increase in the strength of precipitation teleconnections in South America and the Maritime continent, while North America and southern Africa are more variable in the R^2 precipitation differences. We speculate on possible links to our documented correlation and R^2 changes like global warming.

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