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Abstract
ABSTRACT AUSTIN DANIEL MANSFIELD. The Temporal Evolution of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic VORTEX2 Near-Storm Environments. (Under the direction of DR. CASEY DAVENPORT) The VORTEX2 field experiment provided a wealth of data on the near-storm environments of tornadic and non-tornadic supercell thunderstorms. While previous research has documented the spatial heterogeneity associated with the environment in the vicinity of the VORTEX2 storms, this study focuses on the temporal evolution of the near-storm environment. Thirty-seven supercells are examined (11 tornadic, and 26 non-tornadic), each with at least three near inflow soundings launched throughout the lifetime of the supercell. The evolution of common forecasting parameters (including shear, storm-relative helicity and instability) are compared among the tornadic and non-tornadic categories. Each parameter is analyzed individually as well as grouped with similar measures to understand potential connections with storm behavior on a temporal track. The timing of associated storms is examined to identify relationships between environmental trends and observed hazards. Each parameter is quantified based off of a time series average along with the average time of tornadogenesis (22:26 UTC). The distribution of each parameter values between tornadic and non-tornadic cases are also illustrated using a violin plot. Parameter values are also examined relative to times of tornadogenesis, peak mesocyclone intensity (for non-tornadic cases), and sunset. After initial observations are made, a statistical analysis was conducted to quantitatively see if there were any statistical differences between the tornadic and non-tornadic cases in regards to the entire dataset (1st thru 3rd soundings). Thus, creating a new comprehension of finding discriminatory parameters (if any) relative to tornadogenesis thus benefiting future tornado forecasting methodologies.