Using Downscaled Climate Model Output to Examine Climate Change in North Carolina

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Robinson, A. (2022). Using Downscaled Climate Model Output to Examine Climate Change in North Carolina. Unc Charlotte Electronic Theses And Dissertations.
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Abstract

Climate change is a pressing issue people in North Carolina are already facing, and recent decades in North Carolina have exhibited a warming trend at the higher end of projected values. Due to North Carolina’s diverse geography, climate is expected to change differently across the state. This geography can be broken down into three distinct regions: the Mountains, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain. We used downscaled climate model output to examine climate change in the largest population centers (Asheville, Charlotte, and Wilmington) in each of these regions to examine how climate change is projected to affect these places in the future for a representative month in the winter and summer. We examine how maximum temperature, minimum temperature, specific humidity, and precipitation change between the present and the end of the 21st Century using downscaled output from the 20 climate models in the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaling project. Climate is expected to warm and become more humid in North Carolina in Summer and Winter with wide variability in precipitation across the state, noting that the variability is only evident by considering output from multiple climate models. By examining North Carolina climate change at such a tangible level, this study intends to inform and equip decision makers as we prepare North Carolina and the distinct geographical regions for its future.

Details
Author

Robinson, Andrew

Title

Using Downscaled Climate Model Output to Examine Climate Change in North Carolina

Physical Description

1 online resource (96 pages) : PDF

Date

2022

Degree Granting Institution

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Abstract

Climate change is a pressing issue people in North Carolina are already facing, and recent decades in North Carolina have exhibited a warming trend at the higher end of projected values. Due to North Carolina’s diverse geography, climate is expected to change differently across the state. This geography can be broken down into three distinct regions: the Mountains, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain. We used downscaled climate model output to examine climate change in the largest population centers (Asheville, Charlotte, and Wilmington) in each of these regions to examine how climate change is projected to affect these places in the future for a representative month in the winter and summer. We examine how maximum temperature, minimum temperature, specific humidity, and precipitation change between the present and the end of the 21st Century using downscaled output from the 20 climate models in the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaling project. Climate is expected to warm and become more humid in North Carolina in Summer and Winter with wide variability in precipitation across the state, noting that the variability is only evident by considering output from multiple climate models. By examining North Carolina climate change at such a tangible level, this study intends to inform and equip decision makers as we prepare North Carolina and the distinct geographical regions for its future.

Genre

masters theses

Subjects--Topics

Atmospheric science

Degree

M.S.

Keywords

Climate
Downscaled
Modeling
North Carolina
Projection
Rcp8.5

Subject Area

Earth Sciences

Advisor(s)

Magi, Brian

Committee Members

Scheff, Jacob
Thomas, Deborah

Degree Note

Thesis (M.S.)--University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 2022.

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Rights Holder Information

Copyright is held by the author unless otherwise indicated.

Identifier

Robinson_uncc_0694N_13124

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13093/etd:2849