This research explores the resiliency of new construction, "starter-home" neighborhoods using the Charlotte, North Carolina area as a study location. Such developments are characterized by nearly identical homes priced at $150,000 or less (a local market value), and lack choice in housing types or price points within the neighborhood (i.e. a mix of multifamily or single-family detached homes). All were built between the years 2000 to 2010 with neighborhoods located in suburban and infill locations. Many relatively new neighborhoods are already distressed, while others remained stable. What made the difference? And, what does a resilient starter-home neighborhood look like? To answer these questions, a database was built at the neighborhood level of more than 980 sales of starter-homes across the Charlotte area using demographic information and neighborhood characteristics. Several variables were tested to identify indicators of either stability or instability based on a loss in home value greater or less than 15 percent, the local market trend through the recession. Neighborhood profile area (NPA) is the unit of analysis, as identified in the 2012 Charlotte-Mecklenburg Quality of Life Study. A thorough understanding of historical development patterns, foreclosure, suburban poverty, humanistic geography theory, affordable housing, community resilience, and social capital provides the knowledge base for the project. The research is carried out using a mixed-methods approach including GIS mapping, statistical analysis, case studies, on-site and remote site analysis, resident surveys, and policy analysis. The results show that the Great Recession disproportionately impacted home values in starter-home communities. After controlling for race and income, predictors of neighborhood stability include the size of home, attendance at neighborhood schools, and residential renovation permitting activity. A close examination of the racial makeup of the 60 study NPAs revealed more diversity than expected, and resident surveys pointed to greater levels of social capital in the stable category. These criteria can be used to predict future success or problems of potential developments, giving planners and policy makers a tool to assist with land use decisions. In addition, these results can be used to guide the rebuilding process following community collapse - whether due to economic or natural disasters - thereby introducing an element of resiliency that is missing from the current model. This research will contribute to the fields of resilience theory, public policy, geography, environmental justice, and urban planning discourse, while bridging the gap between academics and the public sector. A research-based growth strategy can also help shape healthy, equitable communities that are stronger, more resilient and better equipped to respond to change.
