REETIKA THAKUR. A methodology to account for seasonal population shifts in North Carolina. (Under the direction of Dr. JOHN HILDRETH AND DR. NICOLE BARCLAY.)Seasonal population has a widespread impact on economic, political and environmental aspects in a region. Since the variation of seasonal population is not constant throughout the country, it is essential to assess the population shifts at local levels. This study introduces the concept of "equivalent residents" as a unit of measurement which represents visitor equivalencies to permanent residents and hence, assesses population shifts at the county level in the state of North Carolina. The adopted methodology utilized sales tax data by the North Carolina Department of Revenue and the permanent population data as certified to the Secretary of Revenue by the State Budget Officer to calculate the number of equivalent residents. This was calculated for each county on a monthly basis for five-year period (2012-2016). The results were then analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic region and seasonality at county, regional and state level. The study concluded that on an average, the proportion of equivalent residents to permanent residents in North Carolina across five years is 0.11, with the coastal region experiencing maximum equivalent residents influx followed by the mountains and the piedmont region. It was also noted that the population influx of equivalent residents is not constant throughout the year and hence, peak and off peak seasons of each county were defined. 80% of the counties in North Carolina encounter seasonality with the most prominent season being summer season. The study highlights the need to assess seasonal population influx in North Carolina for the efficient allocation of funds and accurate distribution of resources throughout the state.
